作者:admin 日期:2023-12-12 15:42:04 浏览:68 分类:资讯
国信证券发布研究报告称,标普500长期股息率在每年2%附近,回购回报率在每年3%附近,合计现金回报率平均每年5%。但是,这个现象的可持续性存疑:一方面,标普500的现金回报率在2013年见顶后已经回落到4%附近;另一方面,标普500股息+回购总额超过净利润,达到净利润的101%。
国信证券主要观点如下:
标普指数体系与入选规则:成分调整不可预测
标普500是美股核心指数之一,覆盖美国/全球股市84%/49%的市值,在2022年支撑了271万亿美元的交易生态(指数等价交易口径)。
标普500(1927-1957年是标普90)是标普道琼斯指数公司(当时的美国标准数据公司)较早的指数单品,现已演化成一个完备的指数体系。上有覆盖全美股市的标普全市场指数;同层有标普中盘400、小盘600等市值风格的平行指数;并向下衍生出标普100/前50/前10超大市值风格指数,标普500行业指数以及标普500成长/价值指数。此外,还分价格收益、全收益和税后全收益指数;自由流通市值加权(默认)、等权以及有权重上限的自由流通市值加权指数等。
标普500的成分股调整不可预测:1)时间不可预测,标普500“根据需要”进行成分股调整,没有固定调整计划;2)入选资格的判定留有指数委员会主观判断和豁免纳入的空间;3)满足筛选资格的股票不能尽数纳入标普500,委员会将在筛选范围内进行主观选择;4)不再满足入选条件的原成分股未必会被剔除,剔除股票由委员会主观决定。
标普500行业结构:板块成分股数量稳定,权重主要受行情影响
成分股数量方面,标普500的板块结构相对稳定,历史上主要的结构变化有:1)2016年将地产板块从原金融板块中单列;2)2018年将传媒/互联网从可选消费/信息技术移入电信服务。
权重方面,标普500权重变化主要体现各板块的相对行情,如:1)能源板块在2008年前大涨,权重从6%增至16%,随后走弱的同时权重降至3%;2)信息技术在互联网泡沫顶峰有29%的权重,泡沫破裂后迅速降至14%,近年再次回到28%的高位。
集中度方面,权重股体现出鲜明的时代特征,如2000年的微软,2009年的埃克森美孚,2014年的苹果,2019年的谷歌。权重股集中度的历史高位在2000年附近,随后长期回落;近年来集中度再次上升,超越2000年水平。
标普500收益与基本面:现金派发比例超100%,ROE创历史新高
标普500长期股息率在每年2%附近,回购回报率在每年3%附近,合计现金回报率平均每年5%。但是,这个现象的可持续性存疑:一方面,标普500的现金回报率在2013年见顶后已经回落到4%附近;另一方面,标普500股息+回购总额超过净利润,达到净利润的101%。
将价格拆分为EPS x PE,可以发现标普500 EPS长期增速(2002-2022 CAGR 7.2%)和收益率(2002-2022年化7.6%)相似,说明盈利能力能充分支撑股价上行。但是,如果将价格拆分为BVPS x PB,我们发现2002-2022年,标普500的PB从2.6倍增至3.9倍,正处于高位。
PB上升的主要解释是标普500 ROE近年达到20%+的历史新高。通过杜邦拆解,我们发现利润率提升是主要因素,杠杆率提升是次要因素。
风险提示:宏观经济走势的不确定性,国际局势的不确定性,美联储货币政策的不确定性,美国财政政策的不确定性。
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