作者:admin 日期:2023-12-16 15:27:09 浏览:56 分类:资讯
本周全球迎来今年最后一次超级央行周,周内占全球经济规模60%的经济体宣布了年内最后一次利率决议,包括美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行在内的多个发达国家央行宣布了暂停加息的决定。
不过尽管欧美英央行面临的境况十分相似,即通胀水平仍未下降到目标水平,但各自货币政策的步伐已经开始出现不同步的迹象。美联储主席释放出了可能降息的信号,而欧英央行并未跟随。
美联储主席鲍威尔表示,讨论降息的问题开始“进入视野”。点阵图显示,2024年政策利率中位预期为4.6%,暗示明年或降息75个基点。欧洲央行行长拉加德表示没有在议息会议上讨论降息选项,英国央行的货币政策会议上也没有委员支持降息。
欧美英央行货币政策节奏或将出现分化
中国银行研究院全球经济金融研究课题组指出,展望2024年,预计全球经济复苏将依旧疲软,主要经济体增长态势和货币政策走势将进一步分化。
银河证券宏观组组长高明指出,2024年全球通胀将缓慢退潮,主要央行控制通胀的斗争进入观察期。在通胀回落的背景之下,经济的分化将决定货币政策转向的时点先后和利率调降的节奏差。考虑各经济体进入衰退状态的时间差距,预计2024年更多新兴经济体将率先开启降息周期,而欧洲和加拿大、澳大利亚等受高利率冲击更早的发达国家在通胀偏高的情况下仍有动力使利率高位保持一段时间,但货币政策转向时间或要早于美国。
申万宏源宏观团队指出,2024年美欧经济节奏或将完全相反。对美国来说,由于货币政策传导更为滞后,经济增速在明年是“前高后低”的,但对欧元区来说,信用紧缩早已对经济造成压力,随着欧洲央行停止加息,信用紧缩幅度反而可能略微缓解,从而欧元区经济增速在明年是“前低后高”的。在货币政策展望方面,美联储和欧洲央行取向其实相当类似,均是当前已经加息至“限制”区域,需要依赖于未来最新数据作决策。
明年欧美英央行哪家将首先转向降息
中国银行研究院课题组指出,欧美央行大概率结束本轮紧缩货币周期。英国或将成为首个降息的主要发达经济体。英国央行加息周期已结束,但是英国经济衰退压力进一步加大。英国经济若下行速度过快,英格兰银行或将于2024年年中或下半年调整货币政策,转向降息。
对比来看,2024年美联储预计将暂停加息,但是利率水平将较长时间维持在高位。美联储将不断调整资产负债结构,维持每月950亿美元的缩表节奏。随着经济增长和通胀水平双双降温,欧元区经济下行程度超出市场预期,欧洲央行宣告本轮加息周期结束,但仍致力于实现2%的通货膨胀目标,欧元区高利率水平或将维持较长一段时间。
国泰君安证券研究所首席宏观分析师董琦指出,美联储12月议息会议连续三次暂停加息,基本宣告加息结束,主因为美国经济相对放缓和通胀控制持续改善。预计2024年中美联储左右开启降息,年内调降100-150个基点(bp)。
东方金诚研究发展部分析师白雪对新京报贝壳财经表示,与美联储不同的是,本次欧洲央行行长拉加德特别强调欧洲央行完全没有讨论降息,并且重申了欧洲央行的数据依赖策略、试图打压市场对欧洲央行的降息预期。
白雪指出,本次欧洲央行连续第二次维持利率不变,可以视为传递了本轮欧洲央行加息周期已基本结束的信号。考虑到基数效应以及此前应对能源价格冲击的财政措施退坡,以及工资增速依然较高,2024年欧元区通胀的回落速度可能比较缓慢,这可能会制约后期欧洲央行转向降息的速度。预计欧美央行可能都将在2024年的年中前后首次降息。
但考虑到欧元区在2024年面临衰退风险。预计随着欧元区就业市场出现明显恶化迹象,且财政紧缩加大经济下行风险,2024年上半年欧元区可能陷入温和衰退。在此情况下,若经济下行幅度超出预期,也不排除欧洲央行在明年3月启动降息的可能性。
高明指出,随着高利率更快冲击信用扩张渠道并加速经济走弱,欧洲央行稳定经济增长的“隐藏使命”不仅限制了进一步加息,也可能加快货币政策的转向。欧洲央行可能在通胀继续回落的基础上于2024年二季度初考虑降息。
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