作者:admin 日期:2023-12-18 19:39:02 浏览:61 分类:资讯
决定2024年降息速度的最重要指标是什么?。研究这个指标可以发现,近期推动服务业通胀下滑的因素有很多都与能源有关。如果英国央行明年要大幅降息,其余构成部分也需要开始走低。而到目前为止,几乎没有证据表明这一点。
英国央行在12月会议上坚持其“更长时间维持更高水平”的信息,为再次加息敞开大门,并且对即将降息的观点予以了回击。
央行货币政策委员会努力强调,其面临的问题与美联储和欧洲央行(以及其他主要经济体)所面临的问题是不同的,原因是英国经济面临的供需形势发展没有那么有利以及“二次效应”更强。
此外,英国央行淡化了10月份服务业通胀——与国内经济形势密切相关——低于预期的情况。央行表示,导致数据低于预期的部分并不一定是衡量通胀持续性的最佳指标。
英国潜在通胀的粘性有多大?
上图很好地说明了这些要点。我们通过剔除能源密集型类别构建了一个衡量服务业通胀的基本指标。这模仿了英国央行外部成员Megan Greene所跟踪的一种方法,并借鉴了英国国家统计局有关服务业CPI中能源依赖程度最高的组成部分的相关证据。
该指标表明,近几个月来服务业通胀的下降趋势主要是由这些类别推动的,随着天然气和电力价格下跌,以及2022年价格大幅上涨的部分从年度比较中排除,这些类别的压力总是会减轻。
从潜在通胀基础上看,服务业的成本压力呈现出更令人担忧的趋势,自6月份以来一直停留在6%左右的高位,是主要服务业指标长期平均水平的两倍。鉴于接下来商品通胀率很可能保持在历史常态水平之上,该通胀率可能不得不降至3%以下。
换句话说,在国内产生的价格压力恢复到与英国央行2%目标一致的水平之前,还有许多工作要做。
现阶段,这一点还远远得不到保证。4月份,全国最低生活工资(National Living Wage)有可能上调近10%,可能会继续给服务业通胀带来上行压力,特别是如果按历史标准衡量就业市场也依然吃紧的话。
展望未来,随着新的CPI数据发布,我们将密切关注潜在服务业通胀。即使我们在4月份看到整体通胀降至3%以下,我们预计潜在服务业通胀将需要更长时间才能回归正常水平。这就是为什么我们预测明年只会降息75个基点的部分原因。
要让政策更贴近市场路径——市场预计降息幅度超过100个基点、第五次降息的概率为50%——潜在服务业通胀率可能不仅需要很快转向走低,此后还需要迅速下降。
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